Poland reports most substantial annual increases in retail in EU
2010-01-11
In November 2009, the volume of retail trade increased by 1% in comparison with October 2009, and by 4.6% in comparison with November 2008 in Poland, according to Eurostat data. However, in November 2009 retail in the European Union declined by 0.8% month on month and by 2.1% year on year, and in the euro zone there was a 1.2% month-on-month and 4% year-on-year reduction.
The most substantial annual reductions were observed in Latvia (-30.2%), Lithuania (-27.8%) and Estonia (-21.2%), whereas Poland and Belgium enjoyed the most substantial increases, of 4.6% and 3.7% respectively.
Resilient domestic demand was one of the main factors that helped Poland avoid a recession in 2009, leaving it as the only EU economy with positive GDP growth. After a substantial slowing of the pace of economic growth in the first half of last year, caused by the global crisis, the economic situation in the country began to improve in the latter part of 2009, and the fourth quarter witnessed very clear signs of recovery. This was evident e.g. in retail sales figures for November, which grew at their fastest rate since December 2008. According to our estimates, in 2009 as a whole retail sales (at current prices) rose by 3.4%. We forecast that retail sales growth will accelerate above 4% in 2010. Stronger growth will be hampered by continued weakness in the labour market.
Paweł Sionko
Senior Economist
PMR Publications
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